Rationale:
The Missouri Soccer Power Ranking (MSPR) employs an algorithm grounded in strength of schedule and match outcomes to "Power Rank" high school soccer teams in Missouri. The contest's score does not factor into the algorithm; it is solely used to determine a winner, loser, or a tie. There is no incentive to defeat a team by the highest margin possible. This is not a subjective poll; it relies entirely on data, eliminating bias or subjectivity, thus removing the human element. The objective of this ranking system is to foster and advance soccer in the state of Missouri. Additionally, it aims to initiate discussions and generate interest in high school soccer across the state.
How It Operates:
Teams earn points for wins and half of that for a tie. Points are deducted for a loss. These points are then divided by the number of games played to give each team a point total. Game results are extracted from a tiered table, with each class having its own distinct table. Wins are drawn from the winning table, and losses from the losing table. These tables are structured in increments of 10% for each class size. For instance, if team A (regardless of class) defeats team B (a class 4 team with a win/loss record of 90%+), this would give team A the maximum possible points for a win. Conversely, if team C loses to team D (who is in class 1 with a win/loss record of 10% or lower), team C would lose the maximum amount of points possible for a loss. In the case of a tie, the points awarded would be half of what would have been given for a win.
A team's point total is in a constant state of flux throughout the season. Points won or lost from previous games on your schedule are always changing as past opponents progress through their schedule.
Head-to-head matchups do not factor into the ranking. If team A defeats team B, it does not automatically mean that team A will be ranked higher than team B. MSPR provides a broad perspective of a team's entire season, not just one game. It is based on the entirety of the schedule. A single game will not lead to a significant alteration in the calculations. The most effective way to accumulate points and maintain a high ranking is through consistent winning.
The nuts and bolts:
As the season progresses and more data is compiled, the PR will continuously improve, offering a clearer view week by week.
All varsity contests will contribute to point totals.
The MSPR point table is applicable to all MSHSAA member schools.
MSHSAA members versus an out-of-state association member, a non-member school, or a junior varsity team: An average of all wins or losses vs in-state schools on said teams schedule will be used.
How can a winless team have a positive point total? All teams begin with a baseline of 3 points and either build or reduce from there.
If a match is canceled or a forfeit occurs, it will not be calculated since a game was not played.
Scrimmages or jamborees are not included in the calculations.
As the season progresses, the rankings will become more accurate.
How to approach reading the MSPR as a coach or fan:
Based on multiple years of MSPR data from both the boys' and girls' sides, we can draw some conclusions. It's important to note that the team with the higher ranking or point total doesn't always secure a victory. After all, this is a game played by teenagers, and each match is unique with varying matchups against opponents (i.e. injuries, home field advantage, rivalry match, travel, too many games in a short span of time, etc). However, a point differential of 0.4 appears to be the threshold where 'upsets' occur more frequently. Roughly eighty percent of all upsets, as per the PR, happen when teams are within 0.4 points of each other. This could be considered a minor upset. The remaining twenty percent is usually not far from that 0.4 threshold. There are still occasional instances when a 'major' upset happens, and the point spread is considerably different. In any case, it's crucial for every team to approach their opponents with respect, but keep an eye out for those teams within 0.4 points. It should make for a good competitive game.
Side note: This data is sourced from the postseason, when teams have played a substantial number of games and the highest amount of data is accessible for use.
Other Information:
For the most accurate PR possible, all coaches should continue to update MSHSAA’s website after each game, as this is the source from which data is drawn to complete MSPR.
The official MSPR will be released on the Mosoccercoach website every week starting around the midpoint of the season.
The MSPR will undergo review at the end of each school year for potential future revisions.
