2025 Boys Postseason #1 (11-3-25)

November 3, 2025 - Welcome to Postseason Soccer! (Blog #1)

A big week ahead as postseason play continues tonight after a 41-game slate (well, technically 40 as we had our first postseason forfeit with Cardinal Ritter bowing out to Crossroads) Saturday. Tonight and tomorrow will be the heaviest schedule of games - 40 each - before we start getting to our first finals Wednesday. MSHSAA has lengthened the district window over the past few years so we will be seeing finals early next week, as well. Six days ahead with championships played on them means meaningful soccer for the state over the next eight days - always fun!

As mentioned, the playoffs kicked off Saturday and we already had our first significant upset when Class 2 #39 Duchesne (seeded 6th) surprised #20 and 3 seed St. Charles 2-1. St. Charles had a .86 advantage in the Mo Power Rankings (MPR), putting it outside the “upset window” of .40. Otherwise, it was pretty much status quo as all other games followed MPR predictions. There were a couple of games where the seeds didn’t play out - both 5 seeds over 4’s (Oak Grove over Odessa and Grain Valley over Fort Osage). 

Before we get into Saturday’s winners and a quick preview of the classes, we will put this here…an explanation (for the new followers) and a review (for the seasoned fan) regarding our MPR results that we use to rank the teams.

How to approach reading the MSPR as a coach or fan:
Based on multiple years of MSPR data from both the boys' and girls' sides, we can draw some conclusions. It's important to note that the team with the higher ranking or point total doesn't always secure a victory. After all, this is a game played by teenagers, and each match is unique with varying matchups against opponents (i.e. injuries, home field advantage, rivalry match, travel, too many games in a short span of time, etc). However, a point differential of 0.4 appears to be the threshold where 'upsets' occur more frequently. Roughly eighty percent of all upsets, as per the PR, happen when teams are within 0.4 points of each other. This could be considered a minor upset. The remaining twenty percent is usually not far from that 0.4 threshold. There are still occasional instances when a 'major' upset happens, and the point spread is considerably different. In any case, it's crucial for every team to approach their opponents with respect, but keep an eye out for those teams within 0.4 points. It should make for a good competitive game. 
Side note: This data is sourced from the postseason, when teams have played a substantial number of games and the highest amount of data is accessible for use.

And now back to the games…or more specifically a quick look into what could be the most interesting districts in each class. 

Class 4
#1 Rockhurst (D6), #4 Oakville (D1) and #5 Rock Bridge (D7) all have a decided edge in their districts as the only top 20 squads in each. The other five districts could get real interesting - especially D2 where two of last year’s state champs (#2 SLUH in C4 and #3 Ladue in C3) are joined by #7 Parkway West and #13 Kirkwood. Ladue is one of the rare public schools to move up with the Championship Factor in place and not because of that, but because of a growing enrollment and also likely because a few schools in C4 opted out of playing the postseason, thus bumping the Rams up. District 3 also looks to be challenging, with #10 CBC (the 1 seed), #6 DeSmet (seeded 2) and host #8 Francis Howell Central (3rd) all in the mix. Two huge CBC wins over DeSmet in the regular season emphasize how important those head to head games are. The D4 backyard battles will continue again this season as neighbors #9 Ft. Zumwalt West, #12 St. Dominic and #16 Liberty all vie for that playoff berth. The SW area looks to be a two-team battle between #14 Glendale and #19 Ozark, but Ozark will have to get by rival Nixa (#28), a team they lost to just over a week ago. In the NW part (D8), #29 Park Hill South is the 1 seed, but #15 Liberty and #17 Liberty North are actually ranked higher. 

Class 3
 Parity is the word in D1 where #22 Cape Notre Dame is the 1 seed - the lowest 1 seed in any class. D2 has #5 Rockwood Summit and rival #13 Webster Groves on a likely crash course, while D3 has already sorted through its cast of soccer heavyweights and now pared down to #1 Chaminade (a winner over 8-time champ Whitfield Saturday), #6 Parkway Central (ousted perennial power John Burroughs 3-1 Saturday), #2 Westminster and #7 Priory. All 4 of those schools (and coaches) have won previous titles, so expect high quality play there. D4 will likely see the Zumwalt schools (#4 East and #8 South) squaring off when it counts. Only three top 10 squads are in District 5-8 and each (#3 Van Horn, #9 Pembroke Hill and #10 Summit Christian) will be fighting to get through tricky districts with each having teams in the top 20 eager to advance. Summit Christian will also have to travel to Jeff City three times, which could play a factor. D6 also could be very competitive with #19 Willard as the 1 seed and three other schools within a few MPR points from them.

Class 2
This class, from the beginning, looks to be quite top heavy. #1 Springfield Catholic has been the dominant squad all year and leads the state with 24 wins and only one setback, but D5 is as solid as they come with #4 Logan-Rogersville, #7 Bolivar and #9 Monett already in the semis. LR has been to the last two final fours and Monett has a history of being a thorn in the Irish side. The winner of that will likely get the winner of #5 Marshall and #12 Helias in the quarters, so no easy path for any of those teams. D7 and D8 is anyone’s guess…#14 Pleasant Hill heads the D7 group, But #19 Center and #16 Harrisonville are right there. In D8 #27 and 1 seed Excelsior Springs looks for a return to the Final Four after having its 3-year run ended last season. #23 Smithville, down from C3 this year, and #24 Maryville are the biggest challengers. The top district is D2, where #3 and 1 seed Affton heads a group with #2 Clayton (last year’s C2 champ and 2 seed in the district), #8 Bayless and #10 Lutheran South. #13 Perryville is the favorite in D1, while #18 Principia is the 1 seed over #6 Orchard Farm even though the two didn’t play this season. #11 Father Tolton heads the D4 grouping, but #11 Kirksville, #17 Southern Boone and host #22 Moberly have all played each other close this year.

Class 1
42 teams are vying for the C1 crown this year and two have been at the top of the rankings all year. #1 Veritas Christian (D3) and #2 St. Mary’s (D1) have owned the top spot all year, with St. Mary’s taking the first three rankings and Veritas the last three. St. Mary’s will have to get by last year’s C1 champ #12 Valley Park, while Veritas’ biggest obstacle looks to be #15 Lutheran North. D7 in KC should also be a fun watch. #4 Barstow heads that group, but #6 Lone Jack, #10 Cristo Rey and #11 Frontier will look to prove otherwise. D6 1 seed Laquey is #16 in the MPR and 2 seed Dixon is #9 after Lquey topped Dixon earlier in the year. D5 #5 Sacred Heart is the heavy favorite there, while MSHSAA playoff newcomer #7 Christian Fellowship seeks a playoff spot in its first year at host #26 Fatima. D2 1 seed #3 Metro has been lurking all year and would likely get a rematch with St. Mary’s if they can advance past #14 Maplewood and #23 Brentwood.