2026 Boys Postseason #3 (11-3)

2026 Boys Blog #3

Before we get into a busy Monday/Day 2 of the Boys District Week games, here’s a quick reminder of how our MO Power Rankings (MPR) work. We usually place the team with the MPR advantage with a + in parentheses. EX: Team A (+.45) vs. Team B. Our rankings adjust after each game so if a team continues to win (and so do some of their opponents), that team’s score will marginally increase. Of course, there are many factors that go into a head-to-head matchup, but the MPR will give a general idea of how two teams line up based on their performance over the year.

Suggested PR Confidence Scale
Based on five years of postseason results:
Teams within:
0.00-.0.10 - Coin Flip. Virtually even.
0.11-.0.20 - A slight edge. Still very close.
0.21-0.40 - Danger Zone. The .40 mark is the key number here as anything above that score means the upset rates generally drop significantly.
0.41-0.60 - Moderate Favorites.
0.61-0.90 - Strong Favorites.
0.91-1.25 - Heavy Favorites
1.26 and up - Elite Favorites.
We don’t often get many upsets over the 1.25 mark, but when we do, it generally sends seismic shocks through the tournament and provides some great memories/moments - at least for the teams who pull it off.

Monday Action
We focused on the Monett-Bolivar match in our Monday preview yesterday as one that might turn into the Game of the Night and we were not disappointed. The C2 D6 semifinal in Bolivar lived up to the expectations and more. 2-seed (#13) Monett had a +.55 advantage over the host 3-seed (#26) Liberators despite Bolivar topping the Cubs in penalties in early September. This one was played at a high pace and finals-worthy intensity, but neither team could generate many good chances so the game moved to OT. Bolivar slipped a perfect ball behind the Monett defense for a golden goal nearly five minutes into the extra period, electrifying a large home crowd. That this one went to extra time shouldn’t surprise anyone - the two teams have combined for 16 OT and PK games this season with Bolivar winning its 6th in ten tries. A shame someone had to lose this one. Bolivar advances to take on #3 Helias Wednesday in the final. The Crusaders (+2.34) methodically put away a game Cassville squad, 5-1 in the opening game.

The other big upset of the evening wasn’t even all that close. Host #29 Smithville was a +.48 favorite over #42 Kearney, but Kearney rolled to a 4-1 win, avenging an earlier 3-1 loss to the Warriors. Kearney advances to take on #10 Northeast KC, 8-0 winners over Winnetonka.

A couple of teams who had experienced recent Final Four success also saw their seasons end Monday.  2024 C1 champ #17 Valley Park fell to #15 Brentwood 1-0 in OT and last year’s C3 finalist #27 Ft. Zumwalt East is out after dropping a 1-0 result to #28 Warrenton. The Warriors reward is a game with #2 St. Dominic, who cruised to an 8-0 win over #63 McCluer North. The other semi in C3 D4 features #4 Ft. Zumwalt South and #11 St. Charles, which should be a good one. The two didn’t play this year.

In C4 D3, both #1 CBC and #20 De Smet advanced, setting up yet another big game in that storied rivalry. CBC will be the favorite there, but the regular season match was just a 2-1 CBC win and there is enough history to know both teams will be up for each other. The other side of that bracket has another big rivalry as well with #5 Francis Howell Central  and #25 Francis Howell each advancing Monday. Central won the regular season contest 4-1 but rivalry games always have a way of being quirky in the playoffs. Those semis are set for Wednesday.

Tuesday Preview
Tuesday is our biggest night of District play - 45 games on the slate with each class getting several matches as long as the weather cooperates. C1 - 9 games, C2 - 8 games, C3 -12 games and C4 - 16 games and four matches already postponed due to weather.

With so many games hopefully happening, we can only spotlight a few…here are our five to watch tonight:

C4, D7 #9 Blue Springs South (+.28) vs. #14 Blue Springs at Blue Springs. Backyard battles are always fun and throw in win-or-go-home to it and you have the makings of an intense night. Top it off with one our closest margin of games and this should be fun. Blue Springs has already knocked off BSS once this year, 2-1. The winner likely gets a shot at #3 Rockhurst.

C2, D4 Semifinal where #6 Veritas Christian (+.44) and #15 Lutheran St. Charles clash at St. Charles West. Veritas is the defending C1 champ but struggled in its opener against #43 Wright City. LSC is looking to avenge an earlier 2-1 loss to Veritas.

C4, D4 at host Timberland where three Columbia schools travel to the western STL edge. #16 Rock Bridge (+1.32) is the 1 seed and likely won’t have trouble with #48 Battle , but the real fun should be 3-seed #26 Hickman (+.02) vs. #27 and 6-seed Timberland. The 4/5 game with #29 Liberty (Wentzville) (+.14) and #30 Troy is also too close to call. Even the 2/7 match with #19 Ft. Zumwalt West (+.56) and #31 North Point has intrigue, especially since North Point has racked up 17 wins on the season.

In C1, D5 in Sedalia, #22 Lone Jack (+.34), last year’s C1 runner-up, has a tough matchup with #26 Sacred Heart, a team that started 0-7-1 but has gone 7-5 since. 

Finally, overall C2 #1 John Burroughs (+1.63)  takes on #8 Principia in a D3 semifinal, which looks like a simple night for the Bombers before the big potential match with #2 Priory in the finals. However, a closer look shows that Burroughs escaped with a 2-1 PK win earlier and the Panthers have postseason experience after losing in the C2 finals last year. Goals may be hard to come by here and neither team can look too far ahead in a very competitive district.