MO Soccer Blog

November 8, Boys Postseason Blog #7

The field is set!

Two beautiful nights in early November finalized the field of 32 with six games over Monday and Tuesday.

On Monday, C3 D6 #3 Springfield Central pulled off a stunner, knocking out #1 Webb City 2-1. Central entered the district tournament on a seven-game losing streak and had won only three of its last 18 matches, but rattled off three straight district wins to advance to a quarter vs. Springfield Catholic Saturday.

Monday also saw C4 D4 #1 Liberty (Wentzville) hang on in a 1-0 elimination of #2 St. Dominic. Liberty will see John Burroughs next.

In C4 D5, #3 Nixa scored just minutes into the opening half, but #1 Ozark responded with three strikes in the next 20 minutes to advance. Ozark will host #1 Rockhurst Saturday.

Very little drama in the other three matches as the top seeds all won 4-0.

On Monday In Fatima C1 D4 #1 Father Tolton took out #2 Missouri Military Academy, while #1 Orchard Farm cruised past #2 St. Charles in C2 D3 play.

Tuesday’s lone match saw C2 D5 undefeated #1 Logan-Rogersville erupt for four first half goals in a rout over #2 Bolivar. L-R had topped Bolivar twice in the regular season, both by one goal, but this one was decided early.

After 191 matches in all four classes, eight district winners in each class have advanced. A look at some of the numbers:

Overall winners:
1st seed - 19
2nd - 6
3rd - 3
4th - 2
5th - 2

Class 1 winners (4 private, 4 public):
#1 seeds - 6 (DuBourg*, Metro, Maryville, Duchesne*, Father Tolton*, Stover)
#2 seeds - 2 (College Heights*, Laquey)

Class 2 winners (2 private*, 6 public):
#1 seeds - 5 (Westminster Christian*, Harrisonville, Excelsior Springs, Orchard Farm, Logan-Rogersville)
#2 seeds - 1 (Affton)
#3 seeds - 1 (Fulton)
#4 seeds - 1 (Sacred Heart*)


Class 3 winners (1 private*, 7 public):
#1 seeds - 3 (Farmington, Rockwood Summit, East (KC))
#2 seeds - 1 (Springfield Catholic*)
#3 seeds -1 (Springfield Central)
#4 seeds - 1 (Van Horn)
#5 seeds - 2 (Ladue, Ft. Zumwalt South) Note: these two will play in a quarter, so one will be a final four team.

Class 4 winners (3 private*, 5 public):
#1 seeds - 5 (Rock Bridge, Park Hill South, Liberty (Wentzville), Ozark, Rockhurst*)
#2 seeds - 2 (John Burroughs*, Lindbergh)
#3 seeds - 1 (CBC*)

District seeding were accurate 146/191 (76%) of the time.

MO Soccer Power Rankings were accurate 146/191 (76%) of the time.

The average upset loss using the MPR was .4092

There were 13 upsets with a MPR score difference over .5. The largest upset, based on MPR, was STEAM’s 5-3 win over Soldan (+1.80).

Coming up over the next few days…an UPDATED (including playoff games) MPR of the remaining teams, quarterfinal previews and more…

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November 6, Boys PostSeason #6

It was a solid weekend to be the underdog in the MO District Finals  as eight more districts wrapped up Friday and Saturday.

In Friday’s action, the STL area took the spotlight with three instant classics and all three lower seeds winning.

In C4 D1, #1 Vianney and #2 Lindbergh hooked up for the third time in four years to decide the South County rights and as always, this one didn’t disappoint.

Vianney jumped on top early, but the Flyers scored the next three for a 3-1 second-half lead, but the Griffins frantic comeback paid off with a neutralizer in the 75th minute. The two teams battled through two 15-minute OT’s and went to the 6th kicker before Lindbergh advanced, 4-3. It’s the third straight district title game win over Vianney (2020, 2022, 2023) and fourth district title in five years for the Flyers.

The C3 D4 final also had two teams quite familiar with one another. #1 Ft. Zumwalt East earned the top seed with a 2-1 OT win over #3 Ft. Zumwalt South in mid-September, but this time it was the three-time C3 champ Bulldogs who came out on top with a 2-1 result. FZE had ended FZS’s two-year hold on the C3 championship and run of eight straight district titles in last year’s district final. FZS advances at 13-14, while FZE ends its campaign at 17-5.

Two 20-game winners hooked up in the C2 D1 final at Affton. Top-seeded Bayless (20-7) got out to a 1-0 lead 12 minutes in, but it was all #2 Affton (22-4) after that. The Cougars jumped out to a 4-1 halftime lead and held off a late Bayless comeback in a 5-3 win. These two always possess potent offenses, combining for 19 goals in their two matches this year. Bayless won the first one 7-4, but it will be the Cougars who advance for the first time since 2013.

Another #2 seed took the C1 D6 title after Laquey outlasted #5 Dixon 2-1 in Laquey, ending Dixon’s bid to become the second #5 seed to win a title this year after Ladue did it earlier in C3. Laquey, a year after entering the C1 tourney as the overall #1 at 22-3 and getting upset in the district finals by New Covenant, returns to the playoffs with a 11-11 mark. The Hornets have won seven districts since 2013.

Saturday’s slate didn’t disappoint, either.

C1 D1 and overall #1 Bishop DuBourg (21-3) pulled away from #2 Valley Park (21-5-1) with two second half goals to win 2-0. The Cavaliers finished third in C1 last season and will host #5 Metro in the quarters.

C2 D7 #1 Harrisonville (17-5-1) held on to take out #3 Barstow (11-9) in that district final and advance for the first time since 2021’s 4th place finish. Barstow eliminated Harrisonville 3-1 in last year’s final.

The C4 D2 final in St. Louis between MO Soccer powers #1 De Smet and #3 CBC didn’t disappoint. The underdog Cadets scored on a first half free kick and made it stand up to advance to its 33rd playoff. CBC (17-6-2) lost in the C4 state final last season after a two-year playoff absence.

#2 John Burroughs is back to its late-season antics, this time upsetting #1 SLUH 2-1 in the C4 D3 final. Burroughs scored first, but SLUH equalized before halftime. The Bombers got the game-winner with just under 30 to play, reminiscent of the 2021’s team unlikely run to the C4 3rd place finish when it knocked out Chaminade, SLUH and Liberty (Wentzville) in a row before falling to 2-1 in the semis to champ Rockhurst.

Five more finals tonight and one Tuesday to wrap up the district schedule as quarterfinals start Saturday.

C1 D4 #1 Father Tolton (13-9) (+.55) vs. #2 MMA (13-6) in Fatima. Tolton topped MMA 4-0 earlier in the season.

C2 D3 #1 Orchard Farm (21-2) (+1.00) vs. #2 St. Charles (17-9). This is meeting #3 between the two with OF winning both (3-2 in OT Sept. 14 and 4-0 Oct. 10).

C3 D6 #1 Webb City (12-8) (+.59) vs. #3 Springfield Central (9-17) in Branson. Webb City won the first meeting 3-1 and looks for its second consecutive trip to the playoffs after its inaugural appearance last year.

C4 D4 #1 Liberty (Wentzville) (20-2) vs. #2 St. Dominic (18-8) (+.09). Liberty won the in-season game 2-0 Sept. 5.

C4 D5 #1 Ozark (23-2-2) (+.50) vs. #3 Nixa (16-8) in Ozark. These two are quite familiar with each other with Ozark having the latest success. Ozark won the in-season match 2-0 and last year’s semifinal 2-1.

The last district final (C2 D5) takes place Tuesday in Rogersville when undefeated #1 Logan-Rogersville (23-0) takes on #2 Bolivar (16-8). L-R is a +.78 MPR favorite in that one and owns two 1-goal wins over the Liberators this year.

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November 3, Boys Postseason #5

A beautiful fall night for the beautiful game!

Thirteen teams punched their tickets to next Saturday’s quarterfinals with district championship wins Thursday night.

As always this time of the year, if crazy events happen, they happen in the postseason.

Starting in STL, where C3 D3 play between postseason regulars Whitfield (the #2 seed and owner of eight state titles, including the 2021 C2 title) and #5 seed Ladue (9 district titles in 11 years) squared off. The Rams pulled off a first in recent MSHSSA history, winning tonight as a 5 seed, but not in normal fashion. Ladue held a comfortable 2-0 lead at half, but saw two players get sent off in the second half for red cards and had to hold on to a dramatic 2-1 win.

In C1 D5 District final action in Stover, the host #1 Bulldogs jumped out to a 2-0 halftime lead and led 3-1 midway through the second half before #3 Green Ridge mounted a rally and tied the score off a free kick with 33 seconds left in regulation. Stover (16-11) stayed composed and got the game-winner with just under seven minutes left in the first OT to advance to its first ever state playoff.

There was little drama to the C1 D7 title game, where #2 College Heights Christian rocked #1 Lone Jack 5-1. College Heights, #13 in the MPR, advances to take on #3 Maryville in next Saturday’s quarters.

C1 D2 #1 Metro won its district by knocking out #3 Gateway Science 2-1 in OT. Metro advances for the first time since 2019.

C1 D3 #1 Duchesne had no problem with #3 STEAM Academy, ending the game early 8-0.

C2 #1 Overall Westminster Christian earned a difficult 1-0 win over #5 Clayton in the D2 finals, erasing some of the sting of losing last year’s title game to Orchard Farm in OT. Westminster returns to the state playoffs for the first time since 2014.

C2 D4 #3 Fulton kept its strong end of the season rolling with a 2-0 win over upstart School of the Osage. The Hornets only led 1-0 until the 79th minute but got a late goal to advance for the first time since 2020. The win extends their season-long winning streak to six.

C2 D6 #4 Sacred Heart outlasted #3 St. Paul Lutheran 1-0 in OT to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Sacred Heart may have been one of the most affected by the new Championship Factor over the years, but will move on in C2 after years of success in C1.

The C3 D1 championship lived up to its billing as #1 Farmington overcame a 1-0 halftime deficit and won 2-1 in OT over #3 Cape Notre Dame. The Black Knights will move on to play overall #1 Rockwood Summit, who eliminated last year’s C1 champ Borgia 3-1. Summit held a precarious 1-0 lead until two late goals made it 3-0; however, Summit’s GK will miss the quarterfinal match after a red card on Borgia’s late goal, which could make things even more interesting in Farmington.

C3 D 7 #4 seed Van Horn kept up its postseason roll by upsetting #2 Raytown 2-0. Van Horn was the higher ranked squad (#11) in the MPR over Raytown (#14).

Only two C4 finals were held Thursday, with D7 #1 Rock Bridge cruising to a 3-0 win over #2 Blue Springs South and D8 Park Hill South winning the Battle of Riverside over #2 Park Hill 1-0.

In District Semifinals last night…

C1 D1 #1 Bishop DuBourg (20-3) routed #4 Hancock 9-0, while #2 Valley Park (21-4-1) topped #3 St. Mary’s South Side 4-0, setting up a meeting between two 20-game winners in Saturday’s title game.

C1 D4 top seeds Father Tolton (#1) and #2 MMA each advanced with comfortable wins. Tolton beat #4 Calvary Lutheran 8-0 and MMA eliminated host Fatima 3-1. The finals for that one are set for Monday.

C2 D3 #1 Orchard Farm had no problem with #5 Winfield, 7-0. #2 St. Charles ended rival #3 St. Charles West’s season, 3-0.

C2 D5 #1, undefeated Logan-Rogersville (23-0), beat up on #5 Cassville 8-0 and will have #2 Bolivar, 1-0 winners over New Covenant,  in the finals. The winner of this district will be the final team included in the state playoffs, as this one doesn’t kick off until Tuesday night in Rogersville.

C2 D7 #1 Harrisonville ousted #5 St. Pius (KC) 3-0 and will play #3 Barstow, who won a wild 5-4 game over #2 Summit Christian Academy in OT. SCA was ranked #3 in the final MPR, while Barstow sits at #12. Harrisonville is #7.

C3 D6 #1 Webb City moved on after topping #4 Willard 2-0, while #3 Central surprised host #2 Branson, 3-2.

C4 D3 heavyweights #1 SLUH and #2 John Burroughs will play in Saturday’s final. SLUH bested #4 Howell Central 4-0 and Burroughs eliminated a solid #3 Howell North squad 1-0.

The C4 D4 final will have local rivals #1 Liberty (Wentzville) and #2 St. Dominic battling it out Monday in Lake St. Louis. Liberty rolled #4 Howell 4-1, while Dominic held off a gritty #6 Ft. Zumwalt squad 1-0.

In Ozark, top seeded Ozark held on to eliminate #4 Kickapoo 2-1, while #3 Nixa ended C4 newcomer #2 Glendale’s season 1-0. Glendale had been to four of the past five C3 Final Fours but got bumped up this season to C4 for the first time.

Friday and Saturday each have four finals on tap, including two huge C4 games in STL Saturday.

On Friday:
C1 D6 #2 Laquey (10-11) (+.27) vs. #5 Dixon (13-7)

C2 D1 #1 Bayless (20-6) (+.04) vs. #1 Affton (21-4)

C3 D4 #1 Ft. Zumwalt East (17-4) (+.73) vs. #3 Ft. Zumwalt South (12-14)

C4 D1 #1 Vianney (19-5-1) (+.26) vs. #2 Lindbergh (20-5)

Saturday’s slate:
C1 D1 #1 Bishop DuBourg (20-3) (+.55) vs. #2 Valley Park (21-4-1)

C2 D7 #1 Harrisonville (16-5-1) (+.21) vs. #3 Barstow (11-8)

C4 D2 #1 De Smet (16-3-1) (+.33) vs. #3 CBC (16-6-2)

C4 D3 #1 SLUH (19-3-1) (+.58) vs. #2 John Burroughs (16-5)

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November 2, Boys Postseason #4

The postseason march to a championship season or a Final Four berth almost always comes with adversity and “that moment” that separates those who advance and those who don’t.

Two-time defending C4 champ and overall #1 Rockhurst faced that moment last night.

Seemingly cruising toward its 12th straight district championship in D6 against #3 Ray-Pec, the Hawklets led 2-0 with under seven minutes to play. Then things got interesting.

The Panthers scored twice within three minutes, forcing OT and certainly stunning the 20-0 Hawklets, and bringing both teams to “that moment.”

Once again, Rockhurst found a way behind 2022 MO Class 4 Player of the Year Baka Kante. Kante scored twice, including the game-winner on a penalty in OT to propel Rockhurst into a quarterfinal next Saturday in Springfield.

C3 D5 2 seed (#10 overall) Springfield Catholic also faced its crucial moment - Monday in the district semi against Rolla. Trailing by a goal with just 16 seconds to play, the Irish forced OT and won it there, leading to last night’s 3-0 district championship win over #4 Cap City in Jefferson City’s  D5 final. The Irish took advantage of two precision first half finishes to get some separation and then a late breakaway sealed it. Catholic advances to host the quarter Saturday vs. the C3 D6 winner.

C3 D8 #1 East KC cruised to a 5-0 win over #2 Platte Co. in a game that was only separated by .01 in the MPR. A statement win for the 16-2 Bears, last year’s C3 second place squad.

C2 D8 #1 Excelsior Springs also advanced with a 2-0 win over #3 Bishop LeBlond. The Tigers are shooting for a third consecutive Final Four after 3rd place finishes in 2021 and 2022.

C1 #1 D8 Maryville punched its ticket to the quarters by knocking off #2 Cristo Rey 4-1. The 15-3 Spoofhounds won their 4th consecutive district.

Some other games of note from the 11-1 slate:
C1 D3 #3 STEAM Academy, a -1.80 underdog to #2 Soldan, used a solid offensive game to win 5-3, where it will take on heavily-favored Duchesne in the final.

C1 D5 #3 Green Ridge (12-12) surprised #2 Smithton (16-8) 2-1 to advance to tonight’s final in Stover. Green Ridge had lost three previous games against Smithton this year and will now face the host squad for the fourth time. Green Ridge won the season opener 4-2, but Stover earned 2-1 and 6-1 wins later in the season.

C3 D4 #2 Hannibal saw its season end against #3 Ft. Zumwalt South, -.58 underdogs, 3-1. The Bulldogs have spent the past two years under .500 after winning three of four C3 titles, but found a way to advance to another championship against #1 Ft. Zumwalt East, 2-0 winners over #4 Holt. East beat South 2-1 in 2OT in the regular season.

On to tonight’s schedule, where 13 titles will be decided amongst the 31 matches. Nine districts will play semis.

C1 D3 #1 Duchesne (18-7) (+3.01) vs. #3 STEAM (7-14)
C1 D5 #1 Stover (15-11) vs. #3 Green Ridge (+.06) (12-12)
C1 D7 #1 Lone Jack (10-8-1) (+.11) vs. #2 College Heights Christian (9-11)

C2 D2 #1 Westminster Christian (17-5) (+.27) vs. #2 Clayton (16-6)
C2 D4 #3 Fulton (13-10) (+.33) vs. #4 School of the Osage (7-15-1)
C2 D6 #3 St. Paul Lutheran (15-9) vs. #4 Sacred Heart (22-4) (+.67)

C3 D1 #1 Farmington (12-6) vs. #3 Cape Notre Dame (14-11) (+.33)
C3 D2 #1 Rockwood Summit (17-4-1) (+.82) vs. #2 Borgia (18-7)
C3 D3 #2 Whitfield (12-9) (+.28) vs. #5 Ladue (9-14) Note: Ladue trying to win as #5 seed…hasn’t been done in the recent format.
C3 D7 #2 Raytown (16-3-1) vs. #4 Van Horn (12-10) (+.12)

C4 D7 #1 Rock Bridge (17-6-3) (+.34) vs. #2 Blue Springs South (10-10)
C4 D8 #1 Park Hill South (17-2-1) (+.67) vs. #2 Park Hill (12-7)

A quick note: After 146 postseason games so far, the MPR has accurately picked 115 (79%), while the district seedings have been correct 114 times (78%). The average upset loss of MPR teams is .4528, which basically stays consistent with our findings over the past few years of doing this.

Enjoy tonight everyone!

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November 1, Boys Postseason #3

Another night, another defending champ goes home early.

This time it was reigning C2 winner and D6 #2 seed Marshall losing to St. Paul Lutheran 3-2 in OT. St. Paul advances to face #4 seed Sacred Heart, a 3-2 winner over top-seed Oak Grove. Sacred Heart isn’t your typical #4 seed after a 20-win regular season. The Gremlins have made things interesting in the postseason after two one-goal wins (4-3 over Odessa in the first round) push them to the finals.

C1 D6 top seed Crocker also saw its season end with a 4-2 loss to #5 seed Dixon. Dixon will try to do Friday what no other 5 seed has done since the latest playoff system of 8 districts in a class was put in place (2021) - win a district title. More on that later.

C4 D7 #1 Rock Bridge needed a goal with 37 seconds left to slip past #4 seed Blue Springs 2-1 and C4 D8 #1 Park Hill South escaped #4 Liberty 1-0 in OT, setting up an all Park Hill final as #2 Park Hill advanced over #3 Liberty North 6-1. Park Hill came in as an MPR underdog to Liberty North (but seeded higher) after having to forfeit five games at the end of the season, thus affecting its MPR score. Rock Bridge will take on Blue Springs South in the C4 D7 finals after BSS eliminated Smith-Cotton 3-0.

C3 D1 #1 Farmington needed a dazzling free kick goal with under five minutes left to get past a resurgent Poplar Bluff squad, while Cape Notre Dame won the battle of Cape Girardeau, eliminating Cape HS 2-0. Farmington and Cape ND meet up in Hillsboro Thursday to settle that competitive district.

No real surprises in C3 D2 where overall #1 Rockwood Summit took out Mehlville 3-0 and #2 Borgia routed Pacific 8-0, setting up a final between last year’s C1 champ (Borgia) and the C3 favorite (Summit).

C3 D6 action got underway in Branson with all four top seeds winning. C2 D7 also kicked off, with only #5 St. Pius (KC)’s 3-1 win over #4 Center shaking things up a bit. #1 Harrisonville advanced with a bye and will see Pius next.

Our first finals come tonight in five districts. (Teams with an MPR advantage have the + number next to them. Seed numbers are before the team’s name.)

C1 D8 - (1) Maryville (+1.58) vs. (2) Cristo Rey
C2 D8 - (1) Excelsior Springs (+.48) vs. (3) Bishop LeBlond
C3 D5 - (2) Springfield Catholic (+.62) vs. (4) Cap City
C3 D8 - (1) East (KC) vs. (2) Platte Co. (+.01) (About as close as you can get!)
C4 D6 - (1) Rockhurst (+1.10) vs. (3) Ray-Pec

There is certainly a precedent set once MSHSAA moved to the 8-team districts for all four classes in 2021. The top two seeds in the district have won nearly 88% (56/64) of the district titles. Three seeds have won six titles in the past two years, while only two #4 seeds have advanced. Only one 4 seed won in 2022 (Helias in C2), while Guadalupe pulled it off in 2021 C3 play.

2022 District Titles By Seed:
1 - 20
2 - 9
3 - 3
4 - 1

2021 District Titles By Seed:
1 - 17
2 - 10
3 - 4
4 - 1

Tomorrow…a BIG day with 31 games, including 13 finals.

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